Before the Next Black Swan Event, Let’s Build a Better Tool for Humanity to Solve Problems With.

A think tank for humanity

The term “black swan event” is used to describe unforeseen, rare, and typically extreme events that have major consequences for humanity. Coined by Nassim Taleb in his book "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable," these events are characterized by their unexpectedness, impact, and the human tendency to rationalize them after the fact as if they were predictable.

The term originates from the belief that all swans were white, as this was the only color of swan observed historically in Europe. However, when black swans were discovered in Australia, it challenged the previously held assumption. Similarly, a black swan event challenges conventional wisdom and exposes the limitations of predictive models.

Examples of black swan events include financial crises, natural disasters, terrorist attacks, geopolitical events, false flags, technological breakthroughs, pandemics, and scientific breakthroughs. They can come from organized plots by the enemies of civilization, accidents, scientific breakthroughs, or they can come from the natural world. These events often have far-reaching consequences, and can reshape entire industries or societies.

Historically, chaotic black swan events have been used by governments to take rights away from citizens. In America, for example, look at what happened after 9/11 with the Patriot Act. Or worldwide, examine what we saw with the coordination during the Covid pandemic when it came to institutional tyranny in the name of safety. Black Swan events are opportunities for those seeking to consolidate power.

Recently, Ron Paul warned Tucker Carlson to prepare for another black swan event. Whether Ron Paul is right or not in the short term, we all should be preparing for the next black swan event. Because no doubt, one is coming at some point. Maybe it is another coordinated attack by a government, a virus that occurs naturally or by human gain-of-function, or something well outside the norm like a massive asteroid or volcano. Regardless of the cause, there will be tyrants and wannabe tyrants waiting in the wings ready to seize on our freedoms in the name of safety in the aftermath.

So how do we prevent this? We make better problem solving systems.

At the root, we need systems where the solutions percolate from the bottom up, instead of the top down. As we have said many times before, when solutions come from centralized entities they are always corruptible, and should be assumed to be so. If an entity asks you to trust it, then it is not trust worthy. Entities that are verifiable, transparent, and allow for all of us to have a say and participate in them are the only kind we should be endorsing.

Here are some graphics to help explain this simple, yet highly overlooked concept better.

This seemingly subtle direction change in which we allow our solutions to flow from makes a world of difference when it comes to being able to corrupt them. But on top of that, the solutions will nearly always be wiser, less divisive, more creative, and have wider perspective when derived in a decentralized fashion.

If you are new here at the Society of Problem Solvers, this type of decentralized problem solving is known as collective “swarm” intelligence. And we are advocating for these types of systems to help us revolutionize all systems.

In a way, we believe that collective “swarm” intelligence systems will be a black swan event in themselves once fully developed. But not in a bad way. Rather in a new evolution for humanity. Much in the same way that electricity, general relativity, or other types of new knowledge have changed humanity for the better. We should be defining our own solutions, our own culture, and our own parameters to live by instead of letting too-down corrupted entities tell us what those parameters are.

Most of these centralized powers use “think tanks” to corrupt our systems. This video does a great job of laying that all out:

Now humanity needs to do the same. We can create decentralized think tanks that counter these powerful centralized ones. We can use collective “swarm” intelligence to get creative answers from millions or even billions of people, that will be better answers than those by the centralized think tanks of K Street in DC. First, because we have many more people on our side. But second, because we have transparency, purpose, and creativity on our side as well.

As Oxford Physicist David Deutsch says in his principle of optimism, “All problems that do not defy the laws of physics are solvable. The question is, can we solve them in time?”

When it comes to the next black swan event, let’s have the right tools in place to do so.

Thanks for reading!

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Thank you to all of the writers that make this possible. We are always accepting guest writers, so if you have an idea for a solution, please reach out. Let’s solve it all, together.

For over 3 billion years on this planet there were only single-celled organisms. Then one day they somehow learned to work together and make complex multi-celled creatures . Right now we are like those single-celled organisms. Our next evolution is finding how to work together, better… (like we wrote about here).

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